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Say WHAT? Poll Shows Specter & Sestak Tied

By Randy LoBasso

Add Comment | Comments: 0 | Posted Apr. 19, 2010

If you’re to believe Rasmussen Reports (and really, who doesn’t?) it’s OK to start getting giddy about Joe Sestak’s run for Senate. So get off your asses, libs!

Rasmussen’s latest telephone survey has got Specter down to his lowest level in 10 months, and Sestak at his highest. With a 5 percent margin of error, Specter leads Sestak 44%-42%.

We’ve got to mention that this is the only survey so far that shows Sestak anywhere near Specter, and we generally don’t trust Rasmussen, who last week revealed a “shock poll” showing a 2012 Ron Paul-Barack Obama presidential race as a “dead heat,” as well. This was reported in several places as news (including, now, here) and considering we’re not yet halfway through 2010, it’s hard to understand why anyone would conduct such a poll, nor is it plausible that Ron Paul could become president, in spite of his legions of fans (Yes, “The Revolution” was a great read and many parts of it made lots of sense), a broad coalition consisting of Republicans, libertarians, Tea Partiers, 9/11 Truthers, End-The-Fed advocates, a combination of these and others I didn’t mention. But we digress.

We think this poll may have something to do with the fact that the numbers consistently show Toomey leading both Sestak and Specter by the same margin (about 10 points), though when faced up against Sestak (unlike Specter), several polls are showing Toomey under the 50 percent mark, implying voters are willing to hear both these nonincumbent candidates out while they’ve already made their decision on Specter.

Five Thirty Eight has some problems with the poll, including the fact that just last week Quinnipiac showed Specter leading Sestak by 20 points, and over the 50 percent mark (Silver also notes incumbents rarely lose after hitting 50 percent in polling). This most recent poll also has a strangely small sample size (435 voters – likely voters, at that).

Quinnipiac’s questionnaire also asked the Democrat primariers whether or not their minds had been made, and fewer Specter voters were sure than Sestak voters (58%-67%), so Grandpa Specter (now with liberalism!) may not have stuffed this one in a sack after all.

There’s a month left until the primary. Both candidates have millions of dollars to work with. Bring on the misleading commercials. You know you wanna.